تعزيز حوكمة الهجرة في سياق تغير المناخ والتنقل البشري في الوطن العربي

Abstract

Climate change is rapidly reshaping migration dynamics across the Arab world, acting as a threat multiplier that exacerbates existing vulnerabilities such as conflict, poverty, and environmental degradation. In 2024 alone, more than 17 million people were displaced due to conflicts, in addition to 1.3 million others displaced by climate-related disasters. Projections indicate that North Africa could witness up to 19.3 million internal climate migrants by 2050 in the absence of any intervention.
As climate-induced mobility continues to expand, the legal and implementation frameworks governing climate displacement remain under development and maturation. The international system has taken an important step in this direction through the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, which formally recognizes the link between disasters, climate change, and human mobility. The Compact calls on states to strengthen protection measures and expand regular climate-related mobility pathways through the development of national legislation and the activation of regional and international cooperation mechanisms, thereby establishing a more stable foundation for addressing this growing phenomenon.
Climate-displaced persons in the Arab world also face significant challenges, foremost among them the absence of explicit provisions addressing climate displacement within international frameworks such as the 1951 Refugee Convention, in addition to the fact that most Arab states are not parties to these agreements. This may result in substantial gaps in legal safeguards for affected individuals, limiting avenues for their formal recognition and the provision of necessary protection. Furthermore, regional cooperation mechanisms remain in their early stages. Nevertheless, with proactive governance, migration can become a tool for climate change adaptation and resilience-building rather than a source of instability. Recent legal developments, including an advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice in 2025, indicate an evolving understanding of states’ responsibilities to avoid returning individuals to conditions involving serious climate-related risks. Accordingly, international migration frameworks are gradually recognizing the need for temporary protection, humanitarian visas, and flexible entry arrangements, thereby improving responses to cross-border displacement caused by climate impacts and disasters.